Predicting the Size of Food Gap and Economic Effect on Poultry Meat in Iraq for the Period (2003–2030)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.48165/ijapm.2026.42.1.13Keywords:
Food, gap, prediction, Poultry, meatAbstract
White meat production is of great nutritional importance to the Iraqi individual, especially poultry meat, as the increasing demand for it, especially recently as a result of its due to its lower cost and its alignment with public health recommendations compared to red meat, has led to the individual not getting his full nutritional share from it. Which led to the creation of a food gap that has been steadily widening. Therefore, the nutritional gap for poultry meat was estimated and the size of the gap was predicted for the period from (2003-2030) based on the statistical method and by calculating the growth rates for each of production, imports and population, which averaged a value of approximately (36%, 9%, 1%). respectively and used in calculating the forecast. The study showed that there was a food gap for the period (2003-2026) that began to decrease during the period (2027-2030). In addition to estimating the self-sufficiency rate, which achieved its highest value in the year 2030 and amounted to approximately (139%), while its lowest percentage was in the year (2009), which amounted to approximately (3.3%). The study reached a set of recommendations that The most important are formulating appropriate and supportive agricultural policies for poultry farm producers and imposing customs taxes on the imported product to protect local product prices from deterioration and reluctance to produce.References
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