Decomposition analysis of cereals production in Nagpur division

Abstract

Agriculture is the most important sector of the Economy in India. Cereals, particularly, wheat and paddy are the mainstay for mitigating food grain requirement for the rising population. Consequently, efficient planning and development efforts are needed. The bottoms up approach i.e., plan for the development of agriculture at desegregated level or at district and/or regional levels and thereafter, aggregate it at the macro or state/country level, has been found useful. Very few such studies have been undertaken at the district/regional levels. The information, particularly, for different districts of Nagpur division and the division as a whole was not available. Consequntly, the present study attempts to undertake a decomposition analysis of cereal production in different districts of Nagpur Division along with the entire division for two periods, viz., Period-I: 1995-96 to 2004-2005; Period-II: 2005-06 to 2014-15; and Overall (Pooled) Period: 1995-96 to 2014-15. Compound growth rates (CGR) were worked out for area, production and yield for five districts, viz., Wardha, Nagpur, Bhandara, Chanderpur and Gadchiroli and the overall Nagpur division. The highest significant CGR in yield of wheat was 4.17 per cent in Gadhchiroli district, while for the production, the CGR for wheat was 4.19 per cent for the Nagpur division as a whole during overall period. The docomposition analysis indicated area effect for increasing production of wheat was maximum, i.e. 596.45 in Gadchiroli district followed by 421.13 in Bhandara district. In all the districts, the decomposition analysis indicated that cubic models provided best fit for area, production and productivity of wheat and rice.