A Framework for Voting Behavior Prediction Using Spatial Data

Authors

  • Shobhit Kumar Ravi B.Tech Scholar, Department of Computer Science & Engineering, Ambalika Institute of Management & Technology, Lucknow, India Author
  • Shivam Chaturvedi Assistant Professor, Department of Computer Science & Engineering, Ambalika Institute of Management & Technology, Lucknow, India Author
  • Neeta Rastogi Professor, Department of Computer Science & Engineering, Ambalika Institute of Management and Technology, Lucknow, India Author
  • Nikhat Akhtar Associate Professor, Department of Computer Science & Engineering, Ambalika Institute of Management & Technology, Lucknow, India Author
  • Yusuf Perwej Associate Professor, Department of Computer Science & Engineering, Ambalika Institute of Management & Technology, Lucknow, India Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55524/

Keywords:

Spatial Analysis, Voter Turnout, Data Analytics, ARIMA Model, Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Time Series Forecasting

Abstract

 The greatest method to anticipate the future  is to look at what has happened in the past. We shall present  important election behavioral predictions in this paper. This  study article will focus on the data offered by Present age wise voting statistics, voter demographics, votes cast, and  spatial correlation among surrounding states in order to  validate that a place's exit poll data. The major goals of our  paper are to first encourage voting among different age  groups based on projected circumstances, and then to  understand the influence of a state's neighbours.  Conclusively studying the entire voting scenario of  previous years, which will aid in the forecast of citizens'  voting behavior in the approaching years, as well as  recognizing the root cause of the weaker portions and  improving upon the flaws for a better future. Our main goal  is to use some current voting data from a region to train and  determine the major voting population in the various states  of the United States based on their geographical influence.  This will aid in the analysis of the current situation as well  as assisting the government in creating awareness in places  where it is missing. 

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Michaud, J., Mäkinen, I.H., Szilva, A. et al. “A spatial analysis of parliamentary elections in Sweden 1985–2018”, Appl Netw Sci 6, 67, 2021

Verba S, Nie NH. Participation in America: political democracy and social equality. University of Chicago Press ed. Chicago: University of Chicago Press; 1987

Dalton RJ. The potential of big data for the cross-national study of political behavior. Int J Sociol. , 46: 8–20, 2016 [4] Franch F. (Wisdom of the Crowds)2: 2010 UK Election Prediction with Social Media. J Inf Technol Polit., 10: 57–71, 2013

Mavragani A, Tsagarakis KP. YES or NO: Predicting the 2015 GReferendum results using Google Trends. Technol Forecast Soc Change., 109: 1–5, 2016

Ceron A, Curini L, Iacus SM. iSA: A fast, scalable and accurate algorithm for sentiment analysis of social media content. Inf Sci.; 367–368:, pp 105–124, 2016

Barclay FP, Pichandy C, Venkat A, Sudhakaran S. India 2014: Facebook “Like” as a Predictor of Elec- tion Outcomes. Asian J Polit Sci., 23: 134–160, 2015

Andersen R, Tilley T and Heath AF, “Political Knowledge and Enlightened Preferences: Party Choice Through the Electoral Cycle”, British Journal of Political Science , 35: 285-302, 2005

Tsakalidis Adam, et al., predicting elections for multiple countries using twitter and polls, IEEE 2015 [10] Hans Ulrich Buhl, 2011, From Revolution to Participation: SocialMedia and the Democratic Decision-Making Process, BISE Editorial, 2011

Unankard, X. Li, M. Sharaf, J. Zhong, and X. Li, “Predicting elections from social networks based on sub-event detection and sentiment analysis,” Web Information Systems Engineering WISE 2014, vol. 8787, pp. 1–16, 2014

Yusuf Perwej, Kashiful Haq, Firoj Parwej, M. M. Mohamed Hassan ,“ The Internet of Things (IoT) and its Application Domains”, International Journal of Computer Applications (IJCA) ,USA , ISSN 0975 – 8887, Volume 182, No.49, Pages 36- 49, 2019, DOI: 10.5120/ijca2019918763

Fotheringham, S. A., Charlton, M. & Demšar, U., Looking for a Relationship? Try GWR. In: H. J. Miller & J. Han, eds.

Geographic Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery. s.l.:CRC Press, pp. 227-252, 2009

Anselin, L., Thirty years of spatial econometrics. Papers in Regional Science, 89(1), pp. 3-25, 2010

Fazekas Z and Méder ZZ,”Proximity and directional theory compared: Taking discriminant positions seriously in multi party systems”, Working Paper, 2012

Tapp, A. F.,. Areal Interpolation and Dasymetric Mapping Methods Using Local Ancillary Data Sources. Cartography and Geographic Information Science, pp. 215-228, 2010

Makazhanov A, Rafiei D, Waqar M. Predicting political preference of Twitter users. Soc Netw Anal Min. 4: 1–15, 2014

Ceron A, Curini L, Iacus S. Using social media to fore-cast electoral results: A review of state-of-the-art. Ital J Appl Stat., 25, pp 237–259, 2015

David E, Zhitomirsky-Geffet M, Koppel M, Uzan H. Utilizing Facebook pages of the political parties to automatically predict the political orientation of Facebook users. Online Inf Rev. 40, pp 610–623, 2016 [20] Shira Fano and Debora Slanzi , Using Twitter Data to Monitor Political Campaigns and Predict Election Results. Springer international publishing AG, 2017

Volkova S, Bachrach Y, Armstrong M, Sharma V. Inferring Latent User Properties from Texts Published in Social Media. AAAI., pp. 4296–4297, 2015

Suarez Hernandez A, et al., predicting political mood tendencies based on twitter data, 2017

X. Zhang, X. Zhu, B. She and S. Bao, "The spatial data integration and analysis with China Geo-Explorer", 17th International Conference on Geoinformatics Geoinformatics 2009 Conference, 2009

L. Anselin, Y. W. Kim and I. Syabri, "Web-Based Analytical Tools for the Exploration of Spatial Data", Journal of Geographical Systems, vol. 6, pp. 197-218, 2004

Yusuf Perwej, “An Experiential Study of the Big Data”, International Transaction of Electrical and Computer Engineers System (ITECES), USA, Science and Education Publishing, Volume 4, No. 1, Pages 14-25, 2017, DOI: 10.12691/iteces-4-1-3

Yusuf Perwej, Asif Perwej, Firoj Parwej, “An Adaptive Watermarking Technique for the copyright of digital images and Digital Image Protection”, International journal of Multimedia & Its Applications (IJMA), USA , Volume 4, No.2, Pages 21- 38, 2012, DOI: 10.5121/ijma.2012.4202

S. Deepajothi and S. Selvarajan:, "A Comparative Study of Classification Techniques On Adult Data Set", International Journal of Engineering Research Technology (IJERT), vol. 1, no. 8, 2012

Yusuf Perwej, “An Evaluation of Deep Learning Miniature Concerning in Soft Computing”, International Journal of Advanced Research in Computer and Communication Engineering (IJARCCE), Volume 4, Issue 2, Pages 10 - 16, 2015, DOI: 10.17148/IJARCCE.2015.4203

Z. Wang, W. Yan and T. Oates, "Time series classification from scratch with deep neural networks: A strong baseline", Proc. Int. Jt. Conf. Neural Networks, vol. 2017-May, pp. 1578-1585, 2017

S. Yao, S. Hu, Y. Zhao, A. Zhang and T. Abdelzaher, "DeepSense: A unified deep learning framework for time series mobile sensing data processing", 26th Int. World Wide Web Conf. WWW 2017, pp. 351-360, 2017

G. Zhang, Time series forecasting using a hybrid arima and neural network model, Neuro-computing, vol. 50, pp. 159- 175, 2003

A.M. Alonso and C. Garcia-Martos, "Time Series Analysis - Forecasting with ARIMA models", Universidad Carlos III de Madrid Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, 2012

S. Atique, S. Noureen, V. Roy, V. H. Subburaj, S. Bayne and J. Macfie, "Forecasting of total daily solar energy generation using ARIMA: a case study", 2019 IEEE 9th Annual Computing and Communication Workshop and Conference (CCWC) (IEEE CCWC 2019), Jan. 2019

Yusuf Perwej, “Recurrent Neural Network Method in Arabic Words Recognition System”, International Journal of Computer Science and Telecommunications (IJCST), UK, London Volume 3, Issue 11, Pages 43-48, 2012

Yusuf Perwej, “The Bidirectional Long-Short-Term Memory Neural Network based Word Retrieval for Arabic Documents”, Transactions on Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence, (UK), ISSN 2054-7390, Volume 3, Issue 1, Pages 16 - 27, 2015, DOI: 10.14738/tmlai.31.863

I. Moghram and S. Rahman, "Analysis and evaluation of five short-term load forecasting techniques", IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 1484-1491, Nov 1989

P. J. Brockwell and R. A. Davis, Time Series: Theory and Methods, Springer, 2009

Akhtar N,” Perceptual evaluation for software project cost estimation using ant colony system”, Int J Comp Appl 81(14):23–30, 2013

Tadayoshi Kohno, Adam Stubblefield, Aviel D. Rubin, Dan S. Wallach,"Analysis of an Electronic Voting System", Johns Hopkins University Information Security Institute Technical Report, TR-2003-19, July 23, 2003

A. Pajala, A. Jakulin, and W. Buntine, "Parliamentary group and individual voting behavior in Finnish Parliament in year 2003: A group cohesion and voting similarity analysis, " 2004

Downloads

Published

2022-03-30

How to Cite

A Framework for Voting Behavior Prediction Using Spatial Data . (2022). International Journal of Innovative Research in Computer Science & Technology, 10(2), 19–28. https://doi.org/10.55524/