Climate Change Impact Studies on Historical Rainfall Records: A  Case Study of Dindori District, Madhya Pradesh, India

O P  Sahu; Pitambra  Sahu; Pradeep K  Jain; Golekar Rushikesh Baburao

doi:10.48165/

Authors

O P Sahu Department of Geology, Govt. Model College, Shahpura Dindori , Madhya Pradesh- 481990, India
Pitambra Sahu Department of Geography, Govt. Thakur Ranmat Singh College Rewa, Madhya Pradesh- 486001, India
Pradeep K Jain School of Studies in Geology and Research Centre, Maharaja Chhatrasal Bundelkhand University, Chhatarpur Madhya Pradesh- 471001, India
Golekar Rushikesh Baburao Department of Geology, G.B. Tatha Tatyasaheb Khare Commerce, Parvatibai Gurupad Dhere Arts and Shri. Mahesh Janardan Bhosale Science College, Guhagar District Ratnagiri, Maharashtra- 415703, India.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.48165/

Keywords:

Climate change, Dindori district, Rainfall, Regression, Mann-Kendall test

Abstract

Climate change is worldwide but its impacts are feeling local. Dindori district is uniquely known for rich forest wealth and tribal communities in Madhya Pradesh India. People derive their livelihood and nutrition security from forest resources. Climate change is likely to impact the distribution of these natural resources by altering their phenology and production. In the present study, long-term rainfall (1901-2018) time series has been applied for rainfall analysis using parametric (Regression) and non-parametric (Mann Kendal and Sen’s slope estimator) tests. The negative trends have been found in Dindori district, Madhya Pradesh, India. A detailed study has been carried out for rainfall behavior identification of the district. The present study is used for forest, agricultural, water resources development, planning, and mitigation.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Adamowski K, Bougadis J. (2003). Detection of trends in annual extreme rainfall. Hydrol Process 17(18), 3547–3560.

Chandrashekhar A (2010) Basics of atmospheric sciences. PHI Learning Pvt. Ltd., Delhi, pp 280–293.

Chattopadhyay S. Jhajharia D, Chatopadhyay G. (2011). Univariate modeling of monthly maximum temperature time series over North-East India: neural network versus Yule-walker equation-based approached. Meteorology Appl. 18, 70-82.

Dash SK, Jenamani RK, Kalsi SR, Panda SK. (2007). some evidence of climate change in twentieth-century India. Clim Change 85(3–4), 299–321.

Dennis R. Helsel, David K. Mueller, and James R. slack (2005). Computer Program for the Kendall Family of Trend Tests, USGS, Scientific investigation report-5275.

Dinpashon Y. Jhajharia D., Fakheri-Fard A, Singh V.P. Kahya E. (2011). Trends in reference evapotranspiration over Iran. J. Hydrol 399, 422-433.

Diaz HF, Bradley RS, Eischeid JK (1989) Precipitation fluctuations over global land areas since the late 1800′s. J Geophys Res D: Atmos 94(D1), 1195–1210.

Dore MHI. (2005). Climate change and changes in global precipitation patterns: what do we know? Environ Int. 31, 1167– 1181.

Fu G Chen S. Liu C. Shepard D. (2004). Hydro-climatic trends of the Yellow basin for the last 50 years. Clim. Change, 65, 149- 178.

Goswami BN, Venugopal V, Sengupta D, Madhusoodanam MS, Xavier PK (2006) Increasing trends of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment. Science 314:1442-1445.

Helsel DR, Hirsch RM. (1992a). Statistical methods in water resources. Elsevier, Amsterdam, p 522.

Helsel DR, Hirsch RM. (1992b). Statistical methods in water resources. Elsevier, New York.

Hirsch RM, Slack JR, Slack RA. (1982). Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data Water Resource Res. 18(1), 107-121.

Hollander, M., and Wolfe, D.A. (1973). Nonparametric Statistical, Methods. New York: John Wiley & Sons.

Hulme M, Osborn TJ, Johns TC. (1998). Precipitation sensitivity to global warming: comparison of observations with HadCM2 simulations. Geophys Res Lett, 25(17), 3379–3382.

IPCC (2007). Climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability Working Group II Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fourth assessment report, Summary for Policymakers, 23.

IPCC (2013). Climate Change the physical science basis, Cambridge.

Jain, S.K. and Kumar, V. (2012). Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India, Current Science, 102, 37–42.

Jhajharia D, Shrivastava SK, Sarkar S. (2009). Temporal characteristics of pan evaporation trend under the humid conditions of Northeast India. Int. J. Climatol. 31(9), 1353-1367.

Jhajharia D, Singh VP. (2011). Trends in temperature, diurnal temperature range and sunshine duration in Northern India. Int. J Climatol 31(9):1353–1367.

Kalumba AM, Olwoch JM, Van Aardt I, Botai OJ, Tsela P, Nsubuga FWN, Adeola AM. (2013). Trend analysis of climate variability over the West Bank-East London Area, South Africa (1975– 2011). J GeogrGeol. 5(4), 131.

Kendall, M.G. (1975). Rank Correlation Methods, 4th edition. London, UK: Charles Griffin.

Kothawale, D. R., Munota, A., and Krishna, K. K. (2010). Recent trends in pre monsoon daily temperature extremes over India, J. Earth. Syst. Sci., 119:51–65.

Kulkarni A, von Storch H. (1995). Monte Carlo experiments on the effect of serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test of trend. Meteorol Z 4(2), 82–85.

Kumar KR, Pant GB, Parthasarathy B, Sontakke NA. (1992). Spatial and sub seasonal patterns of the long-term trends of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Int J Climatol, 12(3), 257–268.

Kumar V, Jain SK, Singh Y. (2010). Analysis of long-term rainfall trends in India. Hydrol Sci J 55(4), 484–496.

Kundzewicz ZW, Robson AJ. (2004). Change detection in hydrological records - a review of the methodology. Hydrol. Sci J 49(1), 7–19.

Mann, H.B. (1945). Non-parametric tests against trend. Econometrica, 13, 163–171. 29. Mearns LO, Rosenzweig C, Goldberg R. (1996). The effect of changes in daily and interannual climatic variability on CERES wheat: a sensitivity study. Clim Change 32(3), 257–292.

Mirza MMQ. (2002). Global warming and changes in the probability of occurrence of floods in Bangladesh and implications. Global Environ Change, 12(2), 127–138.

Mondal A, Kundu S, Chandniha SK, Shukla R, Mishra PK. (2012). Comparison of support vector machine and maximum likelihood classification technique using satellite imagery. Int J Remote Sens Gis. 1(2), 116–123.

MPSAPCC (2014) A report of State Action Plane on Climate Change Madhya Pradesh, India.

Panda, A. and Sahu, N. (2019) Trend analysis of seasonal rainfall and temperature pattern in Kalahandi, Bolngir and Koraput Districts of Odisha, India, Atmos. Sci. Lett. 20.e932.

Prabhakar A.K., Singh K.K. Lohani, A.K. and Chandniha, S.K. (2019), Assessment of regional-level long-term gridded rainfall variability over the Odisha State of India, Applied Water Science (2019)9, 93 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-019-0975- z

Rajani, N.V. Tiwari, M. K., Chinchorkar, S. S. (2020). Long term analysis of rainfall using hybrid Discrete Wavelet transform (DWT) based Mann–Kendall test in central Gujrat region, India, Mausam 71(2), 209- 224.

Rind D, Goldberg R, Ruedy R. (1989). Change in climate variability in the 21st century. Clim Change, 14(1), 5–37.

Sabzevari AA, Zarenistanak M, Tabari H, Moghimi S. (2015). Evaluation of precipitation and river discharge variations over southwestern Iran during recent decades. J Earth SystSci. 124(2), 335–352.

SAPCC (2009) A report of State Action Plan on Climate Change, Madhya Pradesh, India.

Archana S and Garg V. (2018). Study of Climate Change in Uttarakhand Himalayas: Changing Patterns of Historical Rainfall, Climate Change Impacts water science and technology library 82, V.P. Singh et al.(eds.) 165- 179.

Sen, P.K. (1968). Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63, 1379–1389.

Shrivastava, A.K. Yogranjan and Bal, L.M. (2020). Variability of extreme weather events and its impact on crop yield in Bundelkhand Agroclimatic Zone of Madhya Pradesh, Mausam, 71(2), 275-284.

Singh P, Kumar V, Thomas T, Arora M. (2008a). Changes in rainfall and relative humidity indifferent river basins in the northwest and central India. Hydrol Process 22, 2982–2992.

Singh P, Kumar V, Thomas T, Arora M. (2008b). Basin-wide assessment of temperature trends inthe northwest and central India. Hydrol Sci J, 53(2), 421–433.

Sinha Ray KC, De US. (2003). Climate change in India as evidenced from instrumental records. WMO Bulletin 52, 53–58.

Sinha Ray KC, Srivastava AK. (1999). Is there any change in extreme events like droughts and heavy rainfall. INTROPMET-97 IIT, New Delhi, pp 2–5.

Sushant (2013). Impact of Climate Change in Eastern Madhya Pradesh, India. Tropical Conservation Science -Special Issue 6(3), 338-364.

Tebakari T, Yoshitani J, Suvanpiomol C. (2005). Time-space trend analysis in pan evaporation kingdom of Thailand. J HydrolEng 10(3), 205–215.

Thakral, L.N., Jain, S.K. and Ahmad, T. (2018). The impact of Climate Change on Rainfall Variability: a Study in Central Himalayas, V.P. Singh et. al. (eds) Climate Change Impacts, Water Science and Technology library 82, 181-192.

Thapliyal V, Kulshreshtha SM. (1991). Climate changes and trends over India. Mausam. 42, 333–338.

TOI (2014). Times of India News Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh, 11 June 2014, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Vörösmarty Charles J., Green Pamela, Salisbury Joseph and Lammers Richard B. (2000) Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth, Science, 289(5477), 284-

, DOI: 10.1126/science.289.5477.284 52. Yadav, Seema, Bhattacharya, P., and Shrivastava, Kuldeep (2019). Analysing long term seasonal and annual trends for Precipitation and temperature in Central India, Mausam, 70(3), 523-532.

Yu YS, Zou S, Whittemore D. (1993). Non Parametric trend analysis of water quality data of rivers in Kansas. J Hydrol. 150, 61– 80.

Yue S and Pilon P. (2003). Interaction between deterministic trend and autoregressive process. Water Resour Res 39(4).

Yue S and Wang CY. (2002). Applicability of pre-whitening to eliminate the influence of serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test, Water Resour Res 38(6).

Yue S, Pilon P, Cavadias G. (2002). Power of the Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series. J Hydrol, 259, 254– 271.

Yue S, Wang C. (2004). The Mann-Kendall test was modified by effective sample size to detect a trend in serially correlated hydrological series. Water Resour Manag 18, 201–218.

Zhang Q, Jiang T, Gemmer M, Becker S. (2005). Precipitation, temperature and runoff analysis from 1950 to 2002 in the Yangtze basin, China. HydrolSci. 50(1), 65–79.

Zhang Q, Liu C, Xu CY, Xu Y, Jiang T. (2006). Observed trends of annual maximum water level and streamflow during the past 130 years in the Yangtze River basin, China. J Hydrol, 324(1), 255– 265.