Possible regression models for the municipal finances of the municipal corporations of various Indian states ∗

A  Sathyavathi; Lalit Mohan Upadhyaya

doi:10.48165/bpas.2023.42E.1.10

Authors

A Sathyavathi Department of Commerce, Government First Grade College, Jayanagar, Bangalore, Karnataka-560070, India.
Lalit Mohan Upadhyaya Department of Mathematics, Municipal Post Graduate College, Mussoorie, Dehradun, Uttarakhand -248179, India

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.48165/bpas.2023.42E.1.10

Keywords:

Municipal finances, Urban Local Bodie, municipal corporations, revenue receipts, revenue expenditure, nonlinear regression, Exponential Association 2 model, Akaike Information Criterion, F-test

Abstract

As an extension of the ongoing long term research work of the first au thor on the detailed mathematical and statistical analysis of the budget of the Bangalore Municipal Corporation (see, A. Sathyavathi https://ssrn.com/abstract=4403863 and A. Sathyavathi https://ssrn.com/abstract=4461494), in the present paper we propose two possible regression models - the first one a polynomial regression model and the other one a nonlinear regression model to explain the observed trends of the revenue re ceipts and the revenue expenditures of the municipal corporations of the various Indian States including the Union Territory of Chandigarh for the 2017-18 Accounts Category, which pertains to the data of finances of municipal corporations of the various Indian States during the financial year 2017-2018. We also compare these two models of ours. The entire data used by us in this study is gratefully taken by us from the Report on Municipal Finances which was published by the Reserve Bank of India recently on 10 November, 2022 (see, https://m.rbi.org.in/scripts/AnnualPublications.aspx? head=Report%20on%20Municipal%20Finances,https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Publications/

PDFs/RMF101120223A34C4F7023A4A9E99CB7F7FEF6881D0.PDF). Municipal finances

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RMF101120223A34C4F7023A4A9E99CB7F7FEF6881D0.PDF

Khare, Ayush, Roy, Debarpita, Mangla, Shreya, Ahluwalia, Isher Judge, Mohanty, P. K. and Mathur, Om (2019). Finances of Municipal Corporations in Metropolitan Cities of India: A Study Prepared for the Fifteenth Finance Commission, Indian Council for Research on International Eco nomic Relations (ICRIER), India Habitat Centre, Lodhi Road, New Delhi- 110003, 80pp. https: //fincomindia.nic.in/writereaddata/html_en_files/fincom15/StudyReports/Finances%

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Bazaz, Amir and Srinivasan, Madhumitha (2022). The scale of municipal finances is inade quate, The Hindu, July 13, 2022 12:15 am . Updated 10:34 am IST. https://www.thehindu. com/opinion/op-ed/the-scale-of-municipal-finances-isinadequate/article65631481.ece

Revi, A., Srinivasan, M., Bazaz, A., Dubey, M. and Safdar, M. F. (2022). Indian Munici pal Finance 2022. Indian Institute for Human Settlements (ISBN: 9788195648542). https: //doi.org/10.24943/IMF02.2022,https://iihs.co.in/knowledge-gateway/wp-content/

uploads/2023/01/Indian-Municipal-Finance-2022.pdf

Ahluwalia, Isher Judge, Mohanty, P. K., Mathur, Om, Roy, Debarpita, Khare, Ayush and Mangla, Shreya (2019). State of Municipal Finances in India: A Study Prepared for the Fifteenth Finance Commission, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), India Habitat Centre, Lodhi Road, New Delhi- 110003, 135pp. https://fincomindia.nic.in/writereaddata/html_en_files/fincom15/StudyReports/ State%20of%20Municipal%20Finances%20in%20India.pdf

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Atreya, Shashank, Vidhi, Centre for Legal Policy . Empowering Municipal Cor porations To Raise Independent Finances In The Backdrop of COVID-19 ff Tak ing The Load Off State Governments, 8pp. https://vidhilegalpolicy.in/blog/ empowering-municipal-corporations-to-raise-independent-finances-inthe-backdrop-of-covid-19-taking-the-l

Janaagraha Centre for Citizenship and Democracy. A Municipal Finance Blueprint For India A report commissioned by the Fifteenth Finance Commission, Janaagraha Centre for Citizenship and Democracy, Cunningham Road, Bengaluru, Karnataka, India, 88pp. https://www.janaagraha. org/files/Municipal-Finance-Blueprint-for-India-Janaagraha.pdf

Mehta, Meera and Mehta, Dinesh (2013). Assessment of Municipal Finances of 15 Mu nicipalities in Maharashtra, Performance Assessment System, CEPT University, January 2013. https://www.pas.org.in/Portal/document/PIP%20Application/Municipal%20Finance% 20Assessment_Paper.pdf

nal/2023/7), Updated on 20 February 2023. https://www.epw.in/journal/2023/7/commentary/ options-strengthening-municipal-finances.html

Thomas, Simon, Robin, S. and Abirami, C. S. Municipal finance: funding urban development in India, JLL India, 20 pp. https://naredco.in/notification/pdfs/Municipal%20Finance.pdf

Reserve Bank of India (2022). Report on Municipal Finances, 10 November, 2022, 90pp. https://m.rbi.org.in/scripts/AnnualPublications.aspx?head=Report%20on% 20Municipal%20Finances,https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Publications/PDFs/

RMF101120223A34C4F7023A4A9E99CB7F7FEF6881D0.PDF

Khare, Ayush, Roy, Debarpita, Mangla, Shreya, Ahluwalia, Isher Judge, Mohanty, P. K. and Mathur, Om (2019). Finances of Municipal Corporations in Metropolitan Cities of India: A Study Prepared for the Fifteenth Finance Commission, Indian Council for Research on International Eco nomic Relations (ICRIER), India Habitat Centre, Lodhi Road, New Delhi- 110003, 80pp. https: //fincomindia.nic.in/writereaddata/html_en_files/fincom15/StudyReports/Finances%

of%20Municipal%20Corporations%20in%20Metropolitan%20cities%20of%20India.pdf

Mathur, Om Prakash et al. (2013). Approach to the Finances of Municipalities: A Report to the 14th Finance Commission, Working Group of State Urban Development Secretaries on Issues before the 14th Finance Commission, Ministry of Urban Development and National Institute of Urban Affairs, New Delhi November, 2013, 90pp. https://mohua.gov.in/upload/uploadfiles/ files/Approach%20to%20the%20Finance07.pdf

Bazaz, Amir and Srinivasan, Madhumitha (2022). The scale of municipal finances is inade quate, The Hindu, July 13, 2022 12:15 am . Updated 10:34 am IST. https://www.thehindu. com/opinion/op-ed/the-scale-of-municipal-finances-isinadequate/article65631481.ece

Revi, A., Srinivasan, M., Bazaz, A., Dubey, M. and Safdar, M. F. (2022). Indian Munici pal Finance 2022. Indian Institute for Human Settlements (ISBN: 9788195648542). https: //doi.org/10.24943/IMF02.2022,https://iihs.co.in/knowledge-gateway/wp-content/

uploads/2023/01/Indian-Municipal-Finance-2022.pdf

Ahluwalia, Isher Judge, Mohanty, P. K., Mathur, Om, Roy, Debarpita, Khare, Ayush and Mangla, Shreya (2019). State of Municipal Finances in India: A Study Prepared for the Fifteenth Finance Commission, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), India Habitat Centre, Lodhi Road, New Delhi- 110003, 135pp. https://fincomindia.nic.in/writereaddata/html_en_files/fincom15/StudyReports/ State%20of%20Municipal%20Finances%20in%20India.pdf

Mohanty, P. K., Misra, B. M., Goyal, Rajan and Jeomi, P.D. (2007). Municipal Fi nance in India: An Assessment, Department of Economic Analysis and Policy, Re serve Bank of India, Mumbai, December 27, 2007, Development Research Group Study No. 26, 214pp. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/23777672_Municipal_Finance_ in_IndiaAn_Assessment/link/0c9605381ea73505c8000000/download

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Atreya, Shashank, Vidhi, Centre for Legal Policy . Empowering Municipal Cor porations To Raise Independent Finances In The Backdrop of COVID-19 ff Tak ing The Load Off State Governments, 8pp. https://vidhilegalpolicy.in/blog/ empowering-municipal-corporations-to-raise-independent-finances-inthe-backdrop-of-covid-19-taking-the-l

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Mehta, Meera and Mehta, Dinesh (2013). Assessment of Municipal Finances of 15 Mu nicipalities in Maharashtra, Performance Assessment System, CEPT University, January 2013. https://www.pas.org.in/Portal/document/PIP%20Application/Municipal%20Finance% 20Assessment_Paper.pdf

A. Sathyavathi and Lalit Mohan Upadhyaya

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Bulletin of Pure and Applied Sciences Section E - Mathematics & Statistics, Vol. 42 E, No. 1, January-June, 2023

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